Forecast for the summer of 2018
The currency forecast for the summer of 2018 does not imply a significant reduction in the value of the ruble. Despite the short-term period of turbulence after the expansion of US sanctions, currency quotes will be maintained by the positive dynamics of the oil market. In addition, the course change will depend on monetary policymakers, interventions of the Ministry of Finance and the World Cup.
The domestic economy is recovering from the crisis, which is reflected in the stabilization of the foreign exchange market. The ruble has partially restored lost ground, helped by a significant increase in oil prices. In the summer of 2018, the exchange rate dynamics will remain without significant changes, however, it will retain significant volatility.
Experts point out factors that will adversely affect the position of the Russian currency in the near future:
- Geopolitics and the expansion of sanctions.
- Currency interventions.
- Mitigation of monetary policy and acceleration of speculative capital outflow.
The new package of US sanctions has affected 15 Russian companies, which is reflected in their financial performance. Representatives of the aluminum giant Rusal assume the emergence of a technical default as a result of the impact of new restrictions. As a result, the company may need financial support from the government.
The forecast for the exchange rate for the summer of 2018 takes into account the increasing volume of intervention by the Ministry of Finance. The agency uses a favorable conjuncture in the oil market, replenishing foreign exchange reserves. In April alone, more than 240 billion rubles were spent on these operations, which is significantly higher than in previous periods. Such actions create additional pressure on the position of the domestic currency, which leads to a moderate weakening of quotations.
The Central Bank will continue to reduce the level of the discount rate, analysts predict that will accelerate the outflow of speculative capital. Investors will curtail investment in the assets of emerging economies, given the decline in profitability and an increase in risk. In addition, the Fed and other financial regulators will tighten monetary policy,which will affect the actions of speculators.
Negative factors will not be able to provoke another devaluation, experts believe. The position of the Russian currency will be maintained by the positive dynamics of the oil market and the holding of the World Cup.
The ruble retains a significant dependence on trends in oil prices. Revenues from the export of "black gold" provide the main foreign exchange earnings for the Russian economy and form the revenue side of the state treasury. The economic crisis of 2015-2016. was largely provoked by the collapse in the cost of a barrel below $ 40.
The dynamics of oil prices in early 2018 is the key to stability in the foreign exchange market. For the first time in a long period of time, quotes exceeded $ 70 per barrel. Analysts point out the factors that have provided a rise in price of "black gold":
- the extension to the end of 2018 of the agreement, which limits the volume of oil production;
- increased consumption, facilitated by accelerated global economic growth.
OPEC members were able to agree on the extension of oil production quotas for 2018. This condition is the key to stabilizing the market in the medium term.However, experts do not rule out a new stage of correction of quotations, which is associated with the development of shale oil production in the United States.
American companies received an additional advantage to increase their own market share. The increase in prices made shale oil profitable. At the same time, the USA is not a party to the OPEC + agreement, which allows to fully realize the production potential. Increases in US crude production partially offset the restrictive measures by OPEC, which will curb price increases.
Analysts assume a decrease in quotations to $ 60-65 per barrel. as a result of record oil production in the USA. This trend will not prevent moderate growth in oil demand, primarily in the Asian region. The key consumer of “black gold” - China - was able to recover from instability in the financial markets. The GDP growth of the Celestial Empire in 2018 will be 6.6-6.8%, which indicates the overcoming of the crisis.
In addition to the increase in oil prices, the stability of currency quotations will contribute to the holding of the World Cup. This event will provide an inflow of about $ 500 million, which will affect the course dynamics. In the short term, the world championship will create additional demand for ruble liquidity.
In such circumstances, experts do not predict a significant reduction in the value of the ruble. However, they do not exclude moderate strengthening of the dollar and euro positions.
The American currency has good prospects for strengthening up to 65 rubles per dollar. After the expansion of sanctions from the US, the dollar received an additional driver of growth. If oil prices fall to $ 60- $ 65 / bbl, the Russian currency will not be able to hold onto the positions reached.
A more optimistic scenario assumes the stabilization of the rate in the range of 60-62 rubles / USD. A necessary condition for the implementation of this scenario is the preservation of the cost of a barrel above $ 75. In this case, the Russian currency will be able to compensate for negative external factors, experts say.
The dynamics of the ruble against the euro will depend on the future policy of the ECB. The regulator is concerned about the strengthening of the European currency in 2017, which impedes the recovery of the eurozone economy. In addition, analysts note the uncertainty associated with the final format of Brexit. Representatives of the UK and the EU continue to negotiate the possible amount of compensation, which puts pressure on currency quotes.
Depending on the fluctuations in the oil market, experts predict a change in the rate in the range of 72-76 rubles per euro.